How to pick the right credit option

Directional trades: This refers to a situation where the CDS market can be used to take a low-cost bearish view because of a negative basis. If the basis is positive and has widenend for “technical” reasons, it possibly represents an opportunity from a hedging-driven market dislocation. Next post provides an example for Siemens.

Spread trades: Investors who are positive about France Telecom relative to Vodafone can express this outperformance view via selling protection in France Telecom versus buying protection in Vodafone. Depending on the chosen credits this could result in high positive carry trades.

Curve trades/Forward trades: As an issuer’s credit quality deteriorates, the spread curve of the issuer moves from being upward-sloping to inverted. Default curve inversion may present an opportunity to shorten maturity and enhance yield. Curve inversion in the default market also allows investors to purchase forward protection at lower levels. This can be achieved by buying longer dated protection and selling shorter dated protection.

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