If a credit event occurs…

Selling short-term and buying long-dated protection leaves a forward short position, which would benefit from a steepening in the credit curve and vice versa.

Senior versus subordinated CDS strategies: The senior-to-sub spread differential in CDS is driven fundamentally by expected recovery values. If senior spreads are half those of subordinated, then the expected senior loss following default is half that of sub. A 50 percent senior recovery (50 percent loss) would imply a 0 percent subordinated recovery (100 percent loss) A potential strategy is to sell subordinated protection and to buy senior protection (weighted). It offers the chance to unwind at a profit if the seniorto-sub ratio mean reverts to historical averages (positive carry trade). If a credit event occurs, the payoffs will reflect the actual relative recoveries in sub and senior debt.

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