Cash & Loans Advice Blog

How to pick the right credit option

Directional trades: This refers to a situation where the CDS market can be used to take a low-cost bearish view because of a negative basis. If the basis is positive and has widenend for “technical” reasons, it possibly represents an opportunity from a hedging-driven market dislocation. Next post provides an example for Siemens.

Spread trades: Investors who are positive about France Telecom relative to Vodafone can express this outperformance view via selling protection in France Telecom versus buying protection in Vodafone. Depending on the chosen credits this could result in high positive carry trades.

Curve trades/Forward trades: As an issuer’s credit quality deteriorates, the spread curve of the issuer moves from being upward-sloping to inverted. Default curve inversion may present an opportunity to shorten maturity and enhance yield. Curve inversion in the default market also allows investors to purchase forward protection at lower levels. This can be achieved by buying longer dated protection and selling shorter dated protection.

The phase of the credit cycle

According to our correlation matrix high yield is best comparable with equities. The value of $100 invested in January 1987 in high yield and the S&P 500 Index. It can be said that investors realized similar returns over the period Jan. 1987–Dec. 2003. It brings more clarity into the relationship between high yield and equity markets. Obviously both markets are affected by similar macroeconomic factors, so that they show parallel fluctuations in risk. But it is important to note that high yield experienced less risk over this period, meaning that high yield returns experience less volatility than that observed with equities.

It shows historical yields in the high-yield market versus 10-year Treasuries and BBBs. The spread differential varies significantly depending on the phase of the credit cycle.

The advantage of credit brands

Before considering decisions that can build and strengthen brands, it is helpful to understand what advantages they offer. The value of a brand lies in the understanding or trust of customers. This leads to the first advantage: pricing. A successful and established brand can command a price premium that exceeds any extra cost in terms of production and marketing, derived from the element of trust that a brand provides.

Research in the UK has shown that in many cases consumers would be prepared to pay 30% more for a new product from a trusted brand than for an unnamed one. This is particularly true in the highly competitive food industry.

Distribution advantages are another benefit, as an established brand can ensure that manufacturers get the best distributors in terms of quantity and quality. This is because the distributors are more likely to be receptive to a new product from an established brand, in much the same way (and for similar reasons) as their consumers. This is particularly useful for new products. Again, this is because of the element of trust and reliability associated with brands.

The concept of brand identity or image is valuable as it reinforces the product’s appeal. For example, the Rolls-Royce brand has a stately identity and is associated with the values of craftsmanship, tradition and prestige. Volvo has a different brand identity and set of associated values, including safety, functionality and family-orientation. These identities reinforce their appeal to their particular market segments.

When markets decline, however, brand identity can become a handicap, linking the product to an unfashionable past.

The significance of credit brands

A brand is a design, name or identity that is given to a product or service in order to differentiate it from its competitors. Brands are likely to remain a potent force in the future, not least because, in an increasingly unclear and uncertain world, they help customers understand what they are buying or are being offered. If you buy a Rolls-Royce, for example, you expect certain brand values such as quality, reliability and prestige.

Brands are complex assets, and like people they possess, to some degree, distinguishing features. One increasingly popular method of managing brands is to view them as having “personalities”. The Rolls-Royce brand has a high-class, high-quality appeal throughout the world, and retailers such as Wal-Mart and K-Mart built their reputations on homely convenience and low price. It is this concept of brand personality that highlights their power.

Making the right online credit decisions

In 1996, General Electric (GE) pioneered the use of an extranet (a closed network for use by people external to the organisation) in its lighting division to develop effective business-to-business relationships. The lighting division established a global network, linking with suppliers worldwide, to enable the company to complete its purchasing transactions more quickly. A feature of the extranet, known as the trade processing network (TPN), allowed GE’s many international suppliers to download GE product specifications and communicate with the company via a secure, encrypted software link over the internet. The benefits of this approach for the lighting division were swift and significant: the cycle time in the purchasing process was reduced, enabling more efficient production and inventory management. GE suppliers continued to become an integrated part of a global community. Furthermore, TPN was employed in seven other GE business divisions as well as being licensed to other manufacturers to use with their suppliers.

In contrast, a survey of websites in 2000 found that 40% of e-mail questions went unanswered. Only 16% of sites followed up with a marketing offer to customers that had purchased from them in the last 30 days, and of these, only 2% were personalised. Other surveys suggest that as many as 60% of people using the internet believe that giving out personal information is “generally unsafe”. Many businesses now recognise the commercial importance of ensuring that their websites are safe and secure, and are seen to be so by their customers.

The best online credit decisions

The best online sales decisions blend past experience and existing resources with the dynamism and invention of the internet. One useful principle is to use the flexibility of the internet, effectively testing new decisions and ideas. The technology and culture of the internet enable one approach to be tested for a short period before making improvements.

Ten things determine the success of online business activities, some or all of which are useful to consider when deciding how to develop online sales:

• Content
• Communication
• Customer care
• Community and culture
• Convenience and ease
• Connectivity (connecting with other sites as well as with users)
• Cost and profitability
• Customisation
• Capability (dynamic, responsive and flexible)
• Competitiveness

Each of these exerts a significant influence on the success of online activities. Some are more important than others, depending on the organisation’s stage of development, brand strength and competitive position. Some are always important, such as capability and convenience, whereas others can assume a greater significance at a particular time (competitiveness, although always in the background, may assume a sudden and striking relevance).

Techniques to boost internet credit options

Seven decisions can help to drive sales online:

Generate participation, ownership and commitment within the whole company and among senior managers in particular, so that a co-ordinated, cross-functional approach is taken that increases value for the customer and reduces costs for the business.

Ensure that the online sales strategy is all-embracing, enhancing existing activities and learning from past experience.

Simplify the customer’s experience so that the sales process is streamlined, with barriers to purchasing removed.

Ensure that the website is sticky and compelling. You want customers to remain at the site when they arrive, and to return frequently.

Focus on flexibility and efficient personalisation so customers are able to buy exactly what they want, how they want it. Avoid duplication and past mistakes; for example, avoid a complicated, high-cost solution when an effective, low-cost alternative is available.

Prepare internally for the changes that an internet sales strategy will deliver so that the company avoids investing too much, too little, too late or too soon.

Building credit loyalty online

The internet makes it easier to achieve three key elements of customer loyalty: making it easy for customers to do business with you, satisfying your customers and ensuring that they come back. Furthermore, this can be accomplished at a fraction of the normal cost and, by building greater customer loyalty, sales costs are often reduced. There are several factors in building customer loyalty online.

Customers will come back to a website if they feel comfortable and believe it is relevant to them, but more needs to be done to develop customer loyalty. Customers must feel that the website is simple, helpful and intuitive; in other words, it must be easy to use.

The website must be responsive, understanding what customers want without marching them along a predetermined course. (This can be bad enough when a sales person does it; when a computer steers you in an unwanted direction it is particularly annoying.)

The information should be accurate as well as immediate. Customers should be offered the chance to question or change choices before confirming details without worrying that the service will be incorrect.

The website should be valuable, offering an element of service that is unique and cannot be found elsewhere, with options that are likely to suit the target customer. If an organisation can include all this in its website, the likelihood is
that returned shipments, adjustments to orders and dissatisfied customers will decrease, combining cost reduction with an increase in customer loyalty.

Reducing sales costs and improving credit efficiency

The internet enables sales people to have the latest, most up-to-date information to promote sales. This might include product information, testimonials, details of special offers and customer or market intelligence.

This information is particularly valuable when in-depth product information is needed, and it can be provided directly to distributors as well as the salesforce.

The internet allows products to be evaluated quickly and easily without assistance, which can be particularly valuable for complex products or rapidly evolving markets. As a result, product and technical experts can be used for greater value-added activities. Furthermore, if the sales system is effective, complex, customised price quotations can be prepared for customers, possibly without sales people intervening. This has various advantages: it provides an immediate response to customers’ enquiries, reduces the lead time for sales, ensures accurate hand-over of order details, and saves time and effort in taking and transmitting orders. In effect, everything is done better, more quickly and more costeffectively. It also provides accuracy, another hidden benefit of the internet. This not only increases speed but also leads to great reductions in waste. Furthermore, depending on the industry and product, it can lead to reductions in inventory costs as products are made to order.

The Grandosity Issue

Successful real estate speculation leads to grandiosity. Small real estate investors, who missed the stock bear market of 2000-2001, are prone to grandiosity.

Grandiosity, when returns are positive, manifests as extreme good humor and excitement. Grandiosity can be intoxicating. Once experienced, gamblers seek to recreate the high. Day traders continually believe they will have another streak. Tech investors search for the next Microsoft. Real estate developers crave breaking ground on the next mega project.

Yet, even on a winning streak, grandiosity has a down side. A sense of isolation is common. Sudden wealth stands out in a society where savings are accumulated slowly. Grandiosity can lead to a loss of connection with family, friends, colleagues, social norms, and even one’s self.

Grandiosity is often followed by both poor investment results and personal unhappiness. Crashing from grandiosity can be very painful. The detox process leads to grief, sadness, plummeting self-esteem, self-loathing, or depression. Thoughts of suicide are common. Actual suicide is the extreme manifestation of fallen grandiosity.

Although some people are not prone to grandiosity, you should consider any experience you might have with it.